关键词:

器官移植 , 侵袭性肺曲霉病 ,  , Nomogram 模型

Abstract:

Objective To explore the risk factors of invasive pulmonary aspergillosis （IPA） after organ transplantation and establish a Nomogram risk prediction model. Methods A total of 612 patients undergoing organ transplantation admitted to Hebei Yanda Hospital from January 2018 to January 2024 were randomly divided into training set （n ＝ 408） and verification set （n ＝ 204）. The patients in the training set were divided into IPA group （n ＝ 29） and non-IPA group （n ＝ 349） according to whether they had concurrent IPA or not. Factors of IPA were analyzed， and a Nomogram model was established and verified. Results The incidence of IPA was7.76%. Age， diabetes， chronic obstructive pulmonary disease， bronchitis， antibiotic usage time and invasive mechanical ventilation were independent risk factors for IPA after organ transplantation （OR ＝ 3.438，3.743， 3.219，3.149，3.747，3.053，P ＜ 0.05）， and immunosuppresant dose adjustment was its protective factor （OR ＝0.556，P ＜ 0.05）. Based on the above factors， a Nomogram model was established to predict the IPA after organtransplantation， the model showed good discrimination and ideal predictive performance， and net benefits could be obtained. Conclusion Age， diabetes， chronic obstructive pulmonary disease， bronchitis， antibiotic usage time andinvasive mechanical ventilation are independent risk factors for IPA after organ transplantation， and immunosuppresant dose adjustment is its protective factor. The Nomogram model constructed based on this has good predictive performance. 

Key words:

"> Organ transplantation,  , Invasive pulmonary aspergillosis,  , Nomogram model